Forecasting Financial Crashes: The Ultimate Experiment Begins

If a new technique for predicting crashes really works, a bold new experiment will measure how well.

Happy 150th, Oil!

One hundred and fifty years ago on Aug. 27, Colonel Edwin L. Drake sunk the very first commercial well that produced flowing petroleum.

The discovery that large amounts of oil could be found underground marked the beginning of a time during which this convenient fossil fuel became America’s dominant energy source.

But what began 150 years ago won’t last another 150 years — or even another 50. The era of cheap oil is ending, and with another energy transition upon us, we’ve got to scavenge all the lessons we can from its remarkable history. Read the rest of this entry »

Aug. 11, 1903: Instant Coffee, a Mixed Blessing

1903: A Japanese chemist living in Chicago receives the first U.S. patent for instant coffee. Hundreds of millions of caffeine-craving addicts will rue the day, but others have no grounds for complaint.

Water-soluble “instant” coffees first saw light of cup in Britain in 1771. But the product had a short shelf life and went rancid fast, so the process had a short historical life and went away fast. An American attempt in 1853 was followed by a pre–Civil War cake of powdered coffee. Same deal: It wouldn’t keep, so it didn’t sell.

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Biggest Diamond Heist Suspect Found With Rough Stones

Last week, Milanese authorities found Leonardo Notarbartolo, the man accused of masterminding the world’s biggest diamond heist, in possession of approximately 2.2 pounds of rough, uncut diamonds.

Many of the stolen diamonds were never recovered, and Notarbartolo was detained for driving around with hundreds of diamonds stashed in his BMW, just a few months after being released from prison for the crime.

Case closed? Not so fast.

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The latest land-grab is under water and under way

FOR nearly 30 years, legal control of the sea has actually stopped 200 miles from the shore, but even that is about to change. The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea allows states to extend their limits beyond 200 miles if they can show that the continental shelf beyond their coastline extends that far. So long as they can produce the necessary scientific data, and so long as the extra margin is no more than 100 miles from the point at which the sea reaches a depth of 2.5km, they will be granted rights over the natural resources on and under the seabed up to 350 miles from land. For countries that ratified the convention before May 13th 1999, only four months now remain for the submission of their claims: the deadline is May 13th. A scramble for territory is nearing its climax.
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